Franchise fatigue: 'The Bone Temple' falters | Weekend of January 16, 2026
This weekend’s biggest new wide release, 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple, failed to deliver, with weaker audience turnout than 28 Years Later. From a franchise perspective, reviews were strong — its Rotten Tomatoes score actually improved post-release — and social buzz was healthy. Yet the film captured just 15% of total admissions and box office dollars, finishing with a $12.5M debut. That’s less than half of what the first film earned last June.
So, what misfired? Timing appears to be a big issue. January is historically unforgiving, particularly for event-style franchise releases. Compounding that issue, this installment arrived only about six months after the original, limiting the opportunity to expand the audience beyond those who already watched it in a movie theater. Yes, 28 Years Later was on Netflix, but the crowded streaming landscape didn’t leave much runway to meaningfully build momentum.
There are likely some hard but useful lessons here for studios planning tightly spaced trilogy releases.
You shall not pass...up this re-release
The only other “new” title to crack the Top 10 was The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, with “new” being a loose term. This was a special anniversary re-release as part of a Fathom Events run of the full trilogy. Notably, all three films will continue playing in theaters again this coming weekend, underscoring the enduring draw of legacy franchises when paired with special event programming.
Meanwhile, Avatar: Fire & Ash continues to dominate the box office, holding the #1 spot for five consecutive weekends. That kind of staying power puts in some elite company: The Way of Water remained on top for six weekends in 2022, while the original Avatar famously ruled the box office for seven straight weeks back in 2009.
The question now is whether Fire & Ash still has enough momentum — and premium-screen availability — to close that gap. With relatively light new competition, it certainly has the runway to do so.
No Mercy for movie-goers during “dump month”
January can be a revealing testing ground for franchise strategy, release timing, and just how much IP alone can carry a film when the calendar isn’t doing it any favors.
Mercy opens wide this weekend, tracking for a $10M debut. Consider it a contemporary twist on Minority Report: LAPD detective Chris Raven, played by Chris Pratt, is the target of a judicial system powered by Artificial Intelligence he helped to build.
Roger Ebert described the film’s “screenlife” storytelling technique as a gimmick “played out at this point,” not helped by Pratt’s inability to give a physical performance while confined to a chair for most of the film. (When people look at screens all day at work, they probably don’t want to spend the weekend...watching a thriller about people looking at screens.)
This one has a tough road ahead, as Avatar: Fire and Ash, a merciless 20% on the Tomatometer, NFL playoff games, and a major winter storm threaten to work against ticket sales.
Also opening wide is Return to Silent Hill, the third installment in the supernatural psychological horror series based on the Silent Hill 2 video game. While the franchise has a dedicated fan base, early reviews have been underwhelming, and expectations are modest. This feels more like a niche play for genre loyalists than a breakout hit.
Finding the warmth amidst the cold front: The box office continues to come out strong. Last weekend was up +10% from last year’s holiday weekend. The year-to-date the box office is +14% from last year and already closing in on half a billion dollars.
How The People Platform's audience measurements can help drive insights
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